Bernard Baruch Handicap preview

Normally, I would be previewing the Grade 1 Hopeful instead of the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch, the two features on closing day at Saratoga, but I don’t think I have a single helpful thing to say about the year’s first Grade 1 for 2-year-olds. This could be one of the worst Hopefuls in recent years.

The Saratoga meet has been long on everything except impressive debuts by 2-year-old colts, and no one in this field has yet to crack even the 80 Beyer Speed Figure barrier. (Either Exaggerator or Saratoga Mischief, who posted figures of 85 and 84 in running 1-2 in the Saratoga Special, would have been favored here.) None of the seven has won more than a maiden race, and figure-wise they’re all bunched in the mid-to-high 70s. I’m going to try to figure out a way to use most or all of them in the pick fours and pick sixes.

So, let’s instead talk about the Baruch, which is kind of a weird race itself. The field of seven includes four graded stakes winners, but three of them earned those stripes on dirt. The most glaring surface switcher is Constitution, who is trying grass for the first time off a half-year layoff since winning the Grade 1 Donn.

Constitution, a dual Grade 1 winner (2014 Florida Derby, 2015 Donn), is one of the best older dirt horses in the country, so it’s a surprise to find him in this grassy spot. Perhaps trainer Todd Pletcher thought had had enough starters in the Woodward yesterday – he started four and ran 1-2 with Liam’s Map and Coach Inge – and figured it was a good time to see if Constitution had some turf aptitude. He’s had a steady and improving string of workouts, but all on the dirt. If Constitution were able to replicate on turf his Beyers of 110-plus in his best dirt races, he would win this by daylight and immediately become one of the planet’s best grass horses. This strikes me as unlikely enough that his morning-line price of 9-5 seems low. Unless Constitution does something special, Ironicus is supposed to win this race. In his last three starts, he won the Grade 2 Dixie, toyed with allowance rivals while running a mile in 1:32.71, and then was beaten just a neck by Grand Arch while closing into a slow pace in the Fourstardave last time out. He has improved steadily this year and is a legitimate stateside candidate for the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Vyjack’s best days have come on dirt, with victories in the Jerome, Gotham, and Kelso. He hasn’t disgraced himself running second and third in two grass starts after being switched from Rudy Rodriguez to Bill Mott but has rallied mildly rather than strongly. He may be the second- or third-best of the proven grass horses in here, but he’ll be an unattractive price, and there’s no reason to think he can outfinish Ironicus. If you’re looking for a longshot to round out exactas or trifectas, take a look at 20-1 Grand Tito. He’s unlikely to win at this level, but prior to a rare clunker in the Fourstardave, he ran seven straight Beyers of 94 to 99, which could well put him on the board here at a big price.