How to bet Saratoga on Saturday, Aug. 22

Saturday’s Alabama Stakes card at Saratoga isn’t a knockout one in terms of overall quality. That will come with next week’s Travers program. But it is a well-constructed card. The first of two 2-year-old maiden races full of first-time starters is slotted as race 6, meaning it is completely out of the pick five and early pick four. The other was positioned as race 8, the first leg of the late pick four, giving everyone a chance to see where the money goes. And there are several other interesting betting races, such as:

Race 3 Any race in which Sidearm, he with the career record of 18 starts, 1 win, 4 seconds, and 8 thirds, is 5-2 on the morning line is one where you should be able to find some value. And at nearly equal prices, I think Giantinthemoonlite looks very solid. Giantinthemoonlite lost a heartbreaking photo last time (trust me, it broke my heart) against better. He now suitably cuts back a bit in distance and is the controlling speed from the outside. I also think Jai Alai can pick up some pieces late at a decent price. Jai Alai was a rail-running fourth early in the meet, a time when maybe the rail wasn’t the best part of the track, and he now moves back in with New York-breds.

Race 4 Morning-line favorite Hardcore did hit the board in her first two starts, but frankly, her efforts were nothing special. And May Flowers, who will also be very well bet, has had about enough chances. This is a good race to try some prices, and for me, those price horses are Swaggy and Scamper. Swaggy flashed speed in her only start and now adds blinkers for a sharp Jimmy Toner barn that is good with such equipment changes and with second-time starters. Scamper stopped going longer on deep turf most recently, but she fits off a fourth in her debut two back, and the cutback in distance suits her.

Race 7, the Troy Stakes I prefer Something Extra to Shore Runner here. Although Shore Runner has proven to be a terrific claim and was terribly out of position early when he miraculously won the Lucky Coin most recently, the fact is he wouldn’t have won that stakes if he wasn’t bumped out in the stretch into a path that suddenly had a seam open up for him. I just like Something Extra’s better early speed, I like this slightly shorter distance for him, and I think he’s just a little better off his win in the Shakertown earlier this year. I’ll also throw a couple of dollars toward Havelock. Havelock is 8 and might not be able to compete at this level anymore, but he’s shipping all the way from Kentucky to make his seasonal bow here, and he always ran well fresh in the past. For me, he’s worth a flyer at 30-1 on the morning line.

Race 9 Three key players in here – Market Outlook, Zambian Dream, and Taghleeb – are all coming out of the same race, and there are reasons to fancy all three of them. Market Outlook was the second choice of 12 starters in that race but was completely buried down inside with nowhere to go the entire length of the stretch. Zambian Dream was making his U. S. and Northern Hemisphere debut off a nine-month layoff and can improve. And Taghleeb had a bad trip, stumbling at the start and losing a lot of ground on the far turn, and did well to finish third. But I’m more intrigued with Top Billing. As an older horse who hasn’t come close to delivering on the immense promise he offered early in his career (for whatever reason), and who now goes dirt to turf for the first time, Top Billing has the sort of profile I try to avoid. Usually, surface switches in these cases are acts of desperation. But I think Top Billing might be the exception to that rule because he is out of a mare who was a multiple graded stakes winner on turf. So, I’m thinking that for Top Billing, turf was always much more of a viable than last-resort option.