Sports Betting

Lady Eli continues to impress

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July 5, 2015

How lucky are we this season to have not only the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years in American Pharoah but also to have a 3-year-old filly in Lady Eli who, in her own way, might be just as brilliant?

I think you probably have to go back to the 1970s to find comparable examples of such a standout 3-year-old male and female in the same season. And I’m talking truly comparable examples. There have been a lot of very fine 3-year-old fillies in years we’ve had exceptional 3-year-old males, but I don’t think we’ve had one like Lady Eli. I mean, after the way she won Saturday’s Belmont Oaks to extend her perfect record to six wins, Lady Eli probably would have been favorite for Horse of the Year honors if American Pharoah weren’t around.

If Lady Eli keeps this up, and there is absolutely no reason to think she won’t, she is going to test Eclipse Award voters in ways only a truly special horse can. The 3-year-old filly championship always has been the domain of dirt performers. The last specialist to take this title was the sprinter Xtra Heat in 2001, but she at least was a dirt sprinter. A turf specialist never has won this divisional championship, and Lady Eli has raced only on grass and will continue to for the foreseeable future. But after yet another breathtaking performance Saturday, does anyone really think any other 3-year-old filly in the country right now, dirt specialist or whatever, is even close to being in Lady Eli’s league?

One good thing about Lady Eli’s outing Saturday was that she was ridden like the much-the-best horse she is. Unlike what happened in her last start in the Wonder Again, when she unnecessarily found herself in a world of trouble thanks to a much-too-cute ride, Lady Eli was kept outside and in the clear, free of traffic. Sure, that meant Lady Eli had to lose a lot of meaningful ground around the far turn. But when you’re tons the best, you trade ground loss for a clean trip, and Lady Eli was free to uncork her devastating late kick, which in a flash left her 13 opponents reeling in upper stretch. And that late kick was perhaps the best thing about Lady Eli’s Belmont Oaks. It was just as powerful in her first attempt at going as far as 10 furlongs as it was in much shorter races. Monster. That’s what Lady Eli is.

Other Saturday notes - I feel a little bad for Belmont Derby winner Force the Pass – well, not too bad, he did pick up the front end of a $1.25 million pot – but his strong victory wound up being overshadowed by Lady Eli. Most folks know by now that even though the Belmont Derby and Belmont Oaks were both run at 10 furlongs on same inner turf course, the final times of these races just cannot be compared. That is because the paces of these two races couldn’t have been more different. The Belmont Derby’s early fractions were 24.57 seconds, 50.30, and 1:15.38. The early fractions of the Belmont Oaks were 22.93, 47.23, and 1:11.71. So as impressive as she was, the fact that Lady Eli won in 1:59.27 and Force the Pass won in 2:01.16 means nothing because the paces of the two races were so disparate. One final note on the Belmont Derby, while he was clearly motoring home, count me as highly skeptical that Force the Pass covered his ninth and 10th furlongs in 22.16.

There was plenty to like about the one-two finishes from Speightster and Texas Red in the Dwyer. Speightster improved his record to 3 for 3 and is clearly an immensely talented horse. He must be – he won first time out sprinting on the dirt at Keeneland for trainer Bill Mott! But Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red, making his first start since early February because of a foot abscess that knocked him off the Triple Crown trail, was going a one-turn mile Saturday, which absolutely is not his game. So for Texas Red to be clearly second best was excellent given the circumstances, and he will improve a ton off this race and when he gets back out to two turns. You also have to like the directions these two colts are taking. The Jim Dandy into the Travers makes all the sense in the world for Texas Red. And I love the choice to aim Speightster to the King’s Bishop at seven furlongs. At this early stage of his career, the King’s Bishop should be right in his wheelhouse.

Taking nothing away from Gimme Da Lute and Prospect Park, who were only a nose apart at the end of a very entertaining Los Alamitos Derby, but there wasn’t much to like about Kentuckian’s weary third in that race at 2-5 and after having what looked like a comfortable early lead.

Ask three people who was best in the Suburban, and you might get three different answers. There are those who will say Coach Inge was best for finishing third, beaten just 1 1/2 lengths, after contesting a wicked early pace for the distance. Others will say Tonalist was best to be beaten just a head, finishing second after moving way too soon and conceding six pounds to the winner. And others will say Effinex was best because he won despite getting stopped going into the far turn. In actuality, all three are valid arguments because all three ran well. But for me, I don’t at all buy the theory that Effinex was somehow done a favor by getting stopped when he did because getting stopped prevented him from moving too early in company with Tonalist. Horses aren’t cars. They don’t stop and start on a dime. I think people are drastically underestimating how difficult it is for a horse, especially a grinder like Effinex, to restart a run after being stopped.

Private Zone is a cool horse. But as the 1-5 favorite in the Belmont Sprint Championship, he didn’t need any base on balls, and yet he got one anyway. Green Gratto, the other speed in the scratch-reduced field, really didn’t go after Private Zone early, and Private Zone got away with a first quarter in 22.40. For purposes of comparison, here are the first quarter-miles in the three other sprint races at Belmont Saturday: Race 1, 2-year-old maiden special weight – 22.57 Race 2, first-level allowance for fillies and mares – 22.91 Race 6, Victory Ride Stakes for 3-year-old fillies – 22.01 So Private Zone’s first quarter was very pedestrian, especially for as fast as he is.


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