American Pharoah leaves room for doubt

BALTIMORE — Under the dark skies over Pimlico, American Pharoah shone brightly in the Preakness. He not only displayed his usual high speed, but he was the only one of the key contenders who handled with aplomb the wind, the driving rain, the mu,d and even a lightning flash right at post time.

Under most circumstances, a Kentucky Derby winner who proceeds to capture the Preakness in a runaway would justly be hailed as a superstar and a strong favorite to complete a sweep of the Triple Crown with a win in the Belmont Stakes. Yet the circumstances of his seven-length victory yesterday were so bizarre, and in many ways so ambiguous, that American Pharoah will still have plenty of doubters three weeks from now at Belmont Park. The reason is this: In the eight-horse Preakness field, there appeared to be only three horses who could conceivably win, American Pharoah, Firing Line, and Dortmund — the top three finishers in the Derby. All three are superior racehorses, and the other five in the lineup weren’t in their league. But Firing Line failed to show any of his usual speed and was never in contention; he lost by more than 45 lengths. Dortmund displayed brief speed as he chased the favorite, but faded and lost by 16 lengths.

The second-place finisher was Tale of Verve, a colt who had won nothing more than a slow maiden race and looked, on paper, like a cinch to finish last in the Preakness. If he could finish, nobody behind him gave a creditable performance under the stormy conditions. So how good was American Pharoah’s effort? It’s anybody’s guess. The weather became the story of the Preakness in late afternoon, as TV channels showed a green mass on the weather map bearing down on Baltimore. By the time the horses were coming onto the track for the post parade, the torrential rain blew across the track, sending thousands in the infield scurrying to find cover. But all through the week, the main story line had been the more mundane subject of racing tactics. All three of the top contenders are speedsters, and racing fans were speculating who would try to take the lead and who would stalk. Much of this speculation centered on Bob Baffert, trainer of both American Pharoah and Dortmund, who presumably didn’t want his two colts going head-to-head with each other.

The storm rendered most pre-race plans irrelevant. “Rain can change the whole dynamics of a race,” Baffert said. When jockey Victor Espinoza was asked after the victory whether his plan was to go to the lead, he replied, “Not before. But after the rain I changed my mind.” Front-running horses typically have an advantage under such conditions, because they don’t have to contend with a wall of slop being kicked in their faces. The rain was pelting Espinoza in the face so hard that it was difficult for him to see. There was a virtual river in front of his inside stall in the starting gate. But when the gate opened, Espinoza reacted immediately and his intentions were immediately obvious. Coming out of post position No. 1, he was shoving hard on his mount, trying to get clear of the field. Martin Garcia, in the stall next to him, wasn’t nearly as aggressive; it appeared as if the pre-race plan might have been for Dortmund to sit just behind his stablemate. Instead the challenge to American Pharoah came from a speedy longshot, Mr. Z, whose trainer Wayne Lukas made no secret that he wanted his colt to seize the lead.

Mr. Z forced American Pharoah to run hard. He sped the first quarter mile in 22.90 seconds and the half mile in 46.49. These were -- no pun intended -- lightning-fast fractions under the conditions. It was the kind of pace that could easily cause formidable front-runners to collapse and allow stretch-runners to fly past them. American Pharoah shook off Mr. Z on the backstretch. Dortmund never got within five lengths. Instead it was two longshots, Divining Rod and Tale of Verve, who briefly looked as if they would muster a challenge. As the field reached the turn, Jill Baffert exclaimed to her husband, “They’re coming to him!” But the trainer was unperturbed. He has spoken in superlatives about this colt since the early days of his career. He said frequently that American Pharoah can maintain a strong cruising speed that enables him to shake off challengers — as he did by beating Firing Line in the Derby. Even though he won the roses, Baffert said, “At Churchill Downs he didn’t bring his ‘A’ game. He brought his ‘A’ game today. It was a magical moment watching him come down that stretch. He’s an incredible horse. What he does is amazing.”

His victory sets the stage for the most compelling event in American Thoroughbred racing: a horse’s pursuit of the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes, the test of a champion. No horse has swept the 3-year-old classics since Affirmed in 1978. Thirteen have tried and failed, including three trained by Baffert and two ridden by Espinoza. American Pharoah will go to Belmont amid widespread acclaim, but he won’t scare away challengers, partly because it is hard to assess the significance of a seven-length victory in the slop over Tale of Verve. “I know everybody’s sharpening their knives, getting ready,” Baffert said.