Bet This on Go Horse Betting, Not That: Oaklawn review

Bet This on Go Horse Betting: D. Wayne Lukas at Oaklawn in maiden special weight routes. Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 79-16-7-11, $2.87 ROI. Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 16-1-2-1, $1.86 ROI. Coming into the 2015 meet, Lukas had a 20 percent win rate with this angle over the past five years at Oaklawn, essentially doubling his win rate and his return on investment for all runners.

At the 2015 Oaklawn meet, the win rate, the in-the-money rate, and the ROI all dipped, but it is worth noting that his one winner paid nearly $30, and the two who ran second were 19-1 and 20-1, so this does still appear to be an area where Lukas’s horses can outrun their odds at times. Verdict: Neutral. Not That: Lukas at Oaklawn in maiden special weight sprints. Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 67-4-7-6, $0.44 ROI. Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 14-1-2-1, $0.22 ROI For the 2015 meet, the record for Lukas’s runners in MSW sprints looks nearly identical to his stats in routes. The odds tells a different story, though, as his lone winner in this sample paid $3.20, and the three who hit the board were all lower than 10-1. Verdict: Not That . Bet This: Federico Villafranco at Oaklawn in sprints in the first start following a claim. Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 25-7-4-1, $4.15 ROI Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 20-3-2-2, $1.90 ROI Considering that Villafranco had another solid Oaklawn meet, going 18 for 99 with 42 percent in the money, the runners in this sample are a bit disappointing. The ROI is saved by a $20 winner, though, and if you drop the maidens from this sample (as noted below), it becomes 16-3-2-2, and the ROI moves into profitable territory. Still, there may have been some regression to the mean, and it’s hard to stamp this one as an angle to watch for 2016. Verdict: Neutral Not That: Villafranco at Oaklawn with maidens. Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 22-2-4-2, $0.73 ROI Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 19-2-2-2, $0.44 ROI No prices to be had in this lot, as the two winners both paid less than $5 and only one horse hit the board at higher than odds of 3-1. That means these runners generally ran to their odds or worse, as three other favorites failed to hit the board. In addition, prior to the start of the meet, we noted that Villafranco was 6-0-1-0 at Oaklawn with maidens in the first start following a claim. At the 2015 meet, he went 4-0-0-0 with those runners. Verdict: Not That Bet This: Chris Richard at Oaklawn in sprints with last-out winners. Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 55-19-10-9, $2.26 ROI Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 11-3-1-1, $2.41 ROI Prior to the meet, we mentioned that Richard wins at a high rate with these runners, but the odds tend to be low. That trend continued at the 2015 meet, and he improved on the ROI as well. Still, the profit margin is slim here, so he’ll have to continue firing at a high rate to keep this a profitable angle. Verdict: Neutral  Not That: Richard sprint to route at Oaklawn. Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 31-3-3-1, $1.02 ROI Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 5-1-0-0, $1.44 ROI The one winner in the sample was the shortest price of the bunch, and not only did no others hit the board, the best finish of those was sixth place, and all were beaten at least seven lengths. Verdict: Not That Not That: Steve Asmussen debuting at Oaklawn. Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 30-1-7-6, $0.34 ROI Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 3-1-1-1, $2.13 ROI A three-horse sample is a bit small to draw many conclusions, but 1 for 3 with 100 percent in the money is a marked improvement over his stats with firsters at Oaklawn in the five years prior. Still, all three were bet heavily, and two of the three were favored in the wagering, so it may be possible that the trend of overbetting these types continues. Verdict: Neutral Bet This: Asmussen at Oaklawn in maiden special weights after their debut. Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 38-12-6-4, $2.87 ROI Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 7-2-2-0, $6.68 ROI Okay, this is more like it; 4 for 7 in the exacta is always nice, and from a wagering standpoint, the best news is that the two biggest prices in the sample were the two winners, both paying more than $20. Verdict: Bet This  Bet This: Cody Autrey with first-time starters. Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 14-8-1-1, $5.25 ROI Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 3-0-0-0, $0.00 ROI Maybe it was just a matter of time for Autrey to regress to the mean with these runners. Zero for three is pretty bad, and two of the three were beaten more than 23 lengths, but his record with Oaklawn debuters was so strong prior to 2015 that we’re not willing to give up on this one yet. Verdict: Bet This Not That: Autrey in the first start following a claim. Prior to meet at Oaklawn: 60-6-10-8, $0.68 ROI Totals for 2015 Oaklawn meet: 3-1-0-0, $3.13 ROI I guess we missed the boat with both Autrey angles, huh? The $3.13 ROI equates to a 56 percent profit, but given the small sample size and lack of success previously, we’ll still go against these runners, especially at a short price. Also, the two non-winners ran eighth and ninth, each beaten at least 11 lengths. Verdict: Not That These are just a few examples of great bets to target as well as ones to avoid. Every day, at every track, you will find many examples of these kinds of great (or awful) opportunities.